EMC Working Papers

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Editorial Committee
Editorial Committee
Dr Patrick GOUGEON
Director, EMC
Emeritus Professor, ESCP Business School, France

Editorial Assistant
Director, EMC
Assistant Professor, ESCP Business School, UK

E: gmakridou@escp.eu
T: +44 (0)20 7443 8971

The Energy Management Centre periodically publishes working papers involving research by the members of the Laboratory and joint projects with external researchers.

The Working Paper Series provides researchers with the opportunity to make the results of new and continuing work available in a timely fashion. Many of the working papers are draft stages of articles that will eventually be published in international scientific journals. 

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Harnessing Nuclear Power to Meet Croatia’s Energy Needs
  • Croatia should commission a Small Modular Reactor (SMR) as a pioneer of new types of nuclear power station

This short policy report considers the opportunities available to the Croatian government for the utilisation of new nuclear technology for domestically produced energy.

As other European countries struggle to balance their desire for a reliable energy supply with their contribution to climate change, recent advances in nuclear technologies present a solution.

Anthony Evans ,
Professor at ESCP Business School
Lordia Yalley,
Student at ESCP's MSc in Energy Management and ESG Analyst Intern at Vigeo- Eiris - a subsidiary of Moody's Corporation
Faith Ogedengbe,
Student at ESCP's MSc in Energy Management and Solar Project Finance Intern at the CMR Group & 2020 GARP Research Fellow
Fuel Poverty: a distinct problem? Interesting… but possibly misleading

A pressing issue for policy makers

Availability and affordability of energy have become pressing issues. Particularly in the poorest areas on the planet where energy infrastructures is still insufficiently developed, but in more mature countries as well, where the less favoured have too often no choice but to accept poor housing conditions characterised by low energy efficiency and hence expensive energy bills. Today, access to affordable energy is considered to be a basic human right and as such a key goal for policy makers. In this context the concept of “fuel poverty” has emerged. Robinson et al. (2018)1 define fuel poverty as « an inability to attain the socially and materially necessitated domestic energy services that ensure the wellbeing of a household, allowing them to participate meaningfully in society ». This view is aligned with the general definition of poverty and social exclusion2. Of course, a large number of academic studies, surveys and reports addressing this specific theme have been produced. Their aim is first to reveal the growing importance of this problem and its related potential severe consequences, then to identify the mechanisms involved in the rise of this form of poverty and to imagine indicators to identify the population at risk. The ultimate goal is of course to propose guidance for corrective actions.


A relevant approach? 

Download the paper to read more ...

Dr Patrick Gougeon,
Director, EMC Emeritus Professor, ESCP Business School, France
Where does energy come in the global economy?

Growth has been the driving force for most countries and organizations. Global economy has grown over the last thirty years. Although the growth rate varied, but overall the global economy has got a rate of over 2 % as measured by GNP. During the last ten years we are seeing a new phenomenon; the emerging markets have grown at a much faster rate. The balance of global economy has radically changed. But where does energy come in? The growth means demand for energy. Energy production has to grow to sustain the growth.

Dr Jyoti Gupta,
Emeritus Professor ESCP Business School, UK
Impact of US Shale Oil Revolution on the Global Oil Market, the Price of Oil & Peak Oil

Reports about the US shale oil boom being a game changer have proliferated after the November 2012's prediction by the Paris-based International Energy Agency (IEA) that the United States will overtake Saudi Arabia and Russia to become the world's biggest oil producer by 2020 and energy self-sufficient by 2030. While such rosy predictions play well to the IEA's audience, which is largely American, they don't stand up to scrutiny. Still, it is clear that US shale resources might at some point play some role in non-OPEC supply prospects.

The paper will argue that US shale oil production would hardly make a dent in the global oil supplies as it would largely offset the decline in US conventional oil production. It will also argue that the US would never be able to overtake Saudi Arabia or Russia in oil production and would continue to be dependent on oil imports for the foreseeable future. The paper will conclude that the shale oil boom in the United States would not be easy to replicate in the rest of the world nor would it invalidate the peak oil concept.

Dr Mamdouh G. Salameh,
International Oil Economist
An Integrated Approach for Energy Efficiency Analysis in European Union Countries

This paper evaluates the energy efficiency of EU countries over the period 2000-2010. At the first stage, Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) is employed, combining multiple energy consumption data, economic outputs, structural indicators, and environmental factors. The efficiency estimates obtained from the analysis are evaluated in a second stage through a multiple criteria decision aiding methodology (MCDA). The proposed non-parametric approach combining DEA with MCDA enables the modeling of the problem in an integrated manner, providing not only energy efficiency estimates, but also supporting the analysis of the main contributing factors, as well as the development of a benchmarking model for energy efficiency evaluation in country level.

Dr Kostas Andriosopoulos,
Fmr. Associate Professor, ESCP Business School, UK
Dr Georgia Makridou,
Director, EMC Assistant Professor, ESCP Business School, UK
Dr Michael Doumpos,
Co-Director of Research, Financial Engineering Laboratory Associate Professor, Technical University of Crete, Greece
Dr Constantin Zopounidis,
Director, Financial Engineering Laboratory Professor, Technical University of Crete, Greece
Improving Carbon Efficiency: is Economic Growth so Favourable?

In this paper we present an empirical study to verify the assertion of a negative impact of economic growth on carbon efficiency using a cross country analysis. More precisely we are concerned with the relation between past growth and CO2 emissions, assuming that rapid growth in the past may explain lower carbon efficiency today. The central idea tested is that hasty growth is likely to slow down the improvement of energy and carbon efficiency. In other words, using an ordinary least square multifactor model to explain carbon intensity, we verify that the coefficient for an exogenous variable measuring the average past growth rate (apgr) for each country in our sample, is significantly positive.

Dr Patrick Gougeon,
Director, EMC Emeritus Professor, ESCP Business School, France
Dr Kostas Andriosopoulos,
Fmr. Associate Professor, ESCP Business School, UK
Dr Othman Cole,
Affiliate Professor ESCP Business School, UK
If Current Trends Continue, Saudi Arabia Could Become an Oil Importer by 2025

The flame of oil is not eternal. The horizon carries all signs of peak oil.Saudi Arabia, the world's biggest crude oil producer and exporter risks becoming an oil importer probably by 2025 if current economic, demographic and security trends continue into the future. Saudi oil production peaked in 2005 and has been in steady decline since then with domestic oil demand rising at an alarming rate and accounting for 37% of crude production in 2012. As a result, Saudi crude exports have already declined by 32% between 2005 and 2012 and are projected to decline further by 9% by 2015. Population growth and robust economic development and also fuel subsidies drive that demand.

By 2025 Saudi oil consumption is projected to exceed production by 610,000 barrels a day (b/d) and Saudi Arabia would have ceased, to all intents and purposes, to remain a net oil exporter. This paper will argue forcefully that even a drastic cut, if not elimination, of subsidies altogether and a determined shift from oil use in power generation and desalination to nuclear and renewable energy sources starting immediately will not delay the inevitable day when Saudi Arabia will become a net oil importer. The paper will also assess the implications of this eventuality for the global economy, energy security and the price of oil

Dr Mamdouh G. Salameh,
International Oil Economist
Oil Scenarios for Long-Term Planning: Royal Dutch Shell and Generative Explanation, 1960-2010

Most executives know that overarching paints of plausible futures will profoundly affect the competitiveness and survival of their organisation. Initially from the perspective of Shell, this article discuses oil scenarios and their relevance for upstream investments. Scenarios are then incorporated into generative explanation and its principal instrument, namely agent-based computational laboratories, as the new standard of explanation of the past and the present and the new way to structure the uncertainties of the future. The key concept is that the future should not be regarded as 'complicated' but as 'complex', in that there are uncertainties about the driving forces that generate unanticipated futures, which cannot be explored analytically. 

Voudouris V.
Prof. Michael Jefferson,
Member, International Advisory Board, Energy Policy journal Affiliate Professor, ESCP Business School, UK

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