Magazine: Prospect.

Author: Prof. Michael Jefferson, Editor of the journal Energy Policy; Affiliate Professor, ESCP Europe; Professor, University of Buckingham.

Middle East oil and gas are vulnerable to crises-but what are the alternatives?

Forty years ago this month, the world entered a period that Shell's planning group referred to as "The Rapids." This was a period of strong economic growth in the industrialised world, rising US oil imports, and a significant oil price rise. The main trigger was the October 1973 Yom Kippur War between Israel and a coalition of neighbouring Arab states, including Egypt and Syria.

Now, as then, the global economy is showing signs of a return to growth, at least in the developed economies of the west, the oil price is rising and there is grave instability in the Middle East. In June, the price of a barrel of oil was down at close to £100-it is now at £115. In late August, the price

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Research Topics: Energy Markets’ Volatility Electricity Markets